2018年对中美关系来讲是艰难的一年，这种艰难可能还会持续几年时间，甚至会更长，因为到现在还没有解药。
对于当下的中美关系……中国有必要对美国重新认识，假如我们还不从思想观念上调整对美认识，那么在战略和战术上必然会跑偏，可能还会犯重大的错误。2018年对中美关系来讲是艰难的一年，这种艰难可能还会持续几年时间，甚至会更长，因为到现在还没有解药。对于当下的中美关系，中国人有几个想不到：
▋第一个想不到：
美国对中国有这么大仇恨，特朗普对中国没有一丝好感，他把中国形容成“贸易恐怖主义者”，是“全球经济侵略者”，是“欺骗者”和“小偷”、更是“规则的破坏者”。这是中国人万万没有想到了，美国政府已经开动了所有的宣传机器，在全世界最大程度的妖魔化中国，把中国打造成一个“十恶不赦”的“贸易大流氓”，把对“中国威胁论”的宣传推向了一个新高度。
▋第二个想不到：
美国政府下手这么狠、时间如此紧迫、容不下谈判的时间，这是绝大多数中国官员和专家预测不到的。因为在传统的观念中，中美贸易非常紧密，可以说密不可分，美国不可能下重手，这种300亿、500亿、2000亿叠加式地增收关税，这在美国历史上是从来没有过的，在世界贸易史上也是未曾发生过的事；这到底为什么？虽然特朗普政府有“充分的理由”，但是中国人始终不理解，因为这种贸易模式已经形成十多年，并非是一种短期的行为，除非美国人憋了一肚子气、真的“疯”了。
▋第三个想不到：
没有一个国家站出来表示同情和支持中国，许多国家都在反对美国政府的贸易政策，但对于最大的受害者中国，没有一个国家站出来与中国建立统一反美联盟。中国曾经援助了这么多的国家，这些国家也拿了中国许多好处，但关键时候，这些国家都没有与中国采取统一行动。
▋第四个想不到：
美国国内竟然形成了统一战线，共和、民主两党虽然在对全球增税方面有分歧，但在对华贸易战方面，两党的意见竟然是统一的。可以说：在现在的美国国会中，竟然没有一个替中国说话的政客；对于一个重大的贸易政策，美国两党竟然出奇的统一，这确实让所有中国人很受伤。结合上述四个想不到，中国有必要对美国重新认识，假如我们还不从思想观念上调整对美认识，那么在战略和战术上必然会跑偏，可能还会犯重大的错误。
▋第一个认识：
不要认为美帝是“纸老虎”，那是只“真老虎”，是要吃人的。
不要认为美国政客都是绅士，他们不是慈善家，他们对国家和选民极度的忠诚，他们不容易被收买，他们唯一忠诚的对象就是选民，为了迎合选民，他们什么事都会做。
▋第二个认识：
不要指望美帝永远会犯错，美帝有完善的纠偏机制，不可能永远执行“政治正确”。每个总统都有不同的执政理念和方法，但万变不离其中。美帝的一大特点就是：如果发现国家策略出现错误，新政府立即会作出180度大转变，不留任何情面，翻脸比翻书还要快。
▋第三个认识：
美帝并不十分重视意识形态和价值观理念，他们只看重经贸利益。美帝的核心就是对外贸易，所以，千万不要占美国人太多的便宜。尤其不能一味的追求贸易顺差，当你赚的爽的时候，一定要看看人家的脸色，有钱大家赚，不要独吞！
▋第四个认识：
不要大张旗鼓到美帝的家门口说：“我要超越你，我要取代你，我要做世界第一”，如果你真的有这个能力和欲望，也要掩饰、更要低调。美帝特别恐惧别人要取代他的位置，这一点日本人特别有心得，所以现在的日本特别低调，闷声发大财。
▋第五个认识：
美帝不在乎得罪人，他有许多盟友，但他绝对不会牺牲利益去讨好盟友。所以，千万不要与美帝讨近乎，更不要与美帝的盟友讨近乎，这些盟友只对美帝亲，绝不会对你真心友好的；一是一、二是二，尤其不要打亲情牌。
▋第六个认识：
要承认美帝是世界“老大”这个事实，虽然在感情上不能接受，但感情不能取代事实。美帝手中掌握的资源远远要超过我们，我们可以“弯道超车”，但“弯道”是暂时的，在“直道”上你还是追赶者、跟随者；美帝掌握着高科技，我们仅仅是在消化吸收美帝的技术，万万不要把“消化吸收”吹捧成什么“创新”，你忽悠不了美帝，却把自己给骗了。
▋第七个认识：
不要在美帝面前提“信息共享”，美帝是特别重视知识产权保护的，如果你整天炫耀“技术共享”而获得的成果，那么在美帝眼里你就是“小偷”。
也不要在美帝面前谈什么“互联网经济”，这等于是在“关公面前舞大刀”；你使用的英特网是美帝发明的，你在别人地基上盖房子，就不要说拥有产权，低调不会死人，吹牛是要吓死人的。
▋第八个认识：
美帝是玩战略的高手，千万不要让美国人在你身上玩战略，一旦美帝认为你是他们的“敌人”，那么麻烦就大了，美帝是“不达目标誓不罢休”的；就象美帝反恐一样，只要让他认准你就是他们的威胁，那么美帝就会动用所有的资源与你耗下去，数代总统为了一个国家战略而奋斗。
▋第九个认识：
不要指望美国的选举会改变其国家战略，美帝的核心战略是不会改变的，“让美国再伟大”不仅仅属于特朗普一个人的理念，而是反映了美帝整体的国家理念；美帝的选举制度可以使战略进行某种程度的调整，但美帝的国家利益决定了，他是要谋求霸权的。所以，你根本不要指望美国会收缩、会全面退出国际舞台；不要被特朗普的“退群”迷惑了心智。
▋第十个认识：
不要天真地认为你仅仅是在与美帝一家斗争，美帝的所有行动都是有“蝴蝶效应”的，因为美帝是有庞大的战略同盟的，他代表了一种普世价值观，只要美帝一行动，世界上的其它力量就会跟进，也许有的国家不情愿、不甘心，但最终都会与美帝步调一致；要记住：美帝今天对你300亿的贸易增收关税，其产生的效应一定是600亿、900亿，或更多，这就是美帝真正强大之所在；我们必须要用理智取代怒火，要斗智斗勇。
Google translation:
China's four "unexpected" and ten "re-recognition of the United States"
2018 is a tough year for Sino-US relations. This kind of hardship may last for a few years or even longer because there is no antidote to date.
For the current Sino-US relations... China needs to re-recognize the United States. If we do not adjust our understanding of the United States from the ideological point of view, then we will inevitably go wrong in strategy and tactics and may make major mistakes. 2018 is a tough year for Sino-US relations. This kind of hardship may last for a few years or even longer because there is no antidote to date. For the current Sino-US relationship, the Chinese have several thoughts:
The first one can't think of it:
The United States has such a big hatred for China. Trump does not have a good impression on China. He described China as a "trade terrorist", a "global economic aggressor", a "deceiver" and a "thief", and more " The destroyer of the rules." This is what the Chinese have never thought of. The US government has already started all the propaganda machines to demonize China in the world, to make China a "trade hooligan" and to threaten China. "The propaganda has pushed to a new height.
The second one can't think of it:
The time when the US government began to be so embarrassed, the time was so tight, and the time for negotiations could not be accommodated was unpredictable by most Chinese officials and experts. Because in the traditional concept, Sino-US trade is very close, it can be said that it is inseparable, and the United States cannot make a heavy hand. This kind of 30 billion, 50 billion, and 200 billion superimposed tariffs has never been seen in American history. It’s also something that has never happened in the history of world trade; why? Although the Trump administration has "sufficient reasons", the Chinese have never understood it because this trade model has been formed for more than a decade, and it is not a short-term behavior unless the Americans are stunned and really " crazy.
The third one can't think of it:
No country stands up to express sympathy and support China. Many countries are opposed to the US government's trade policy. But for the biggest victim of China, no country has stood up to establish a unified anti-American alliance with China. China has assisted so many countries, and these countries have also taken many benefits from China, but at a crucial time, these countries have not taken unified action with China.
The fourth can't think of it:
The United States has even formed a united front. Although the Republican and Democratic parties have differences in the global tax increase, the opinions of the two parties have been unified in the trade war against China. It can be said that in the current US Congress, there is no politician who speaks for China. For a major trade policy, the two parties in the United States have surprisingly unified, which really hurts all Chinese. In combination with the above four, it is necessary for China to re-recognize the United States. If we do not adjust our understanding of the United States from the ideological point of view, then we will inevitably go wrong in strategy and tactics and may make major mistakes.
▋ The first understanding:
Don't think that the US emperor is a "paper tiger", it is only a "true tiger", it is to eat people.
Don't think that American politicians are gentlemen. They are not philanthropists. They are extremely loyal to the country and voters. They are not easy to buy. Their only loyal object is the voters. In order to cater to the voters, they will do everything.
▋ The second understanding:
Don't expect the US emperor to make mistakes forever. The US imperialism has a perfect corrective mechanism and it is impossible to implement "political correctness" forever. Each president has different ruling ideas and methods, but it does not change. A major feature of the US imperialism is that if a mistake is found in the national strategy, the new government will immediately make a 180-degree change, leaving no feelings and turning faces faster than flipping books.
▋ The third understanding:
The US imperialism does not attach great importance to the concept of ideology and values. They only value economic and trade interests. The core of the US imperialism is foreign trade, so don't take up too much of the Americans' cheapness. In particular, you can't blindly pursue a trade surplus. When you make a good profit, you must look at the faces of others. If you have money, you should earn it. Don't swallow it!
The fourth understanding:
Don't fly to the door of the US emperor's house and say, "I want to surpass you, I want to replace you, I want to be the world's first." If you really have this ability and desire, you must cover up and be more low-key. The US emperor is particularly afraid that others will replace his position. This is especially true for Japanese people, so Japan is particularly low-key and has a lot of money.
The fifth understanding:
The US emperor does not care about offending people. He has many allies, but he will never sacrifice his interests to please allies. Therefore, don't be close to the US emperor, let alone be close to the US emperor's allies. These allies are only true to the US emperor, and will never be true to you; one is one, two is two, especially don't fight family brand.
The sixth understanding:
To recognize the fact that the US emperor is the "big boss" of the world, although emotionally unacceptable, emotions cannot replace the facts. The resources that the US imperial masters are far more than us. We can "turn over the road", but the "curve" is temporary. On the "straight road" you are still a chaser and follower; the US emperor holds high technology, we It is only in the process of digesting and absorbing the Emperor of the United States. Do not tout the "digestion and absorption" as "innovation". You can't fool the US emperor, but you deceive yourself.
▋The seventh understanding:
Don't be "information sharing" on the premise of the US emperor. The US emperor pays special attention to intellectual property protection. If you show off the results of "technology sharing" all day long, then in the eyes of the US emperor, you are a "thief."
Don't talk about the "Internet economy" in front of the US emperor. This is equivalent to dancing in front of Guan Gong. The Internet you use is invented by the US emperor. If you build a house on someone else's foundation, don't say that you own property rights. Low-key will not die, bragging is to scare people.
▋ The eighth understanding:
The US emperor is a master of strategy. Don't let Americans play strategies on you. Once the US emperor thinks that you are their "enemy", then the trouble is big, and the US emperor is "not swearing by the goal." Just like the US imperialists counter-terrorism, as long as he is allowed to see you as their threat, then the US emperor will use all the resources to consume with you, and several generations of presidents struggle for a national strategy.
▋ The ninth understanding:
Don't expect the US election to change its national strategy. The core strategy of the US imperialists will not change. "Making the United States great again" is not only a Trump's philosophy, but a reflection of the US national philosophy as a whole; The US emperor's electoral system can make the strategy adjust to some extent, but the US national interests determine it. He wants to seek hegemony. Therefore, you should not expect the United States to shrink and withdraw from the international arena; don't be confused by Trump's "retreat".
The tenth understanding:
Don't naively think that you are only fighting the American emperor. All the actions of the US emperor have a "butterfly effect" because the US emperor has a huge strategic alliance. He represents a universal value, as long as the United States When the Emperor moves, other forces in the world will follow suit. Some countries may be reluctant and unwilling, but in the end they will all be in step with the US emperor; remember: the US embassy today has increased tariffs on your 30 billion trade, The effect must be 60 billion, 90 billion, or more. This is where the US imperialism is truly powerful; we must replace the anger with reason and be brave.
No comments:
Post a Comment