美國經濟最大危機是什麼

【世情研習社】一一 林民焯主理
*參閲：美國經濟最大危機是什麼？不是中國、俄羅斯，是21萬億美元債務！*
             2018-08-03  [ *一牛財經* ]
*參閲：美國新一輪經濟蕭條若隱若現*
             2018-11-28  ［ *中國新聞網*］作者 *梅新育* (商務部國際貿易經濟合作研究院研究員)
★ *【世情研習社】一一 林民焯主理
*參閲：美國經濟最大危機是什麼？不是中國、俄羅斯，是21萬億美元債務！*
             2018-08-03  [ *一牛財經* ]
*參閲：美國新一輪經濟蕭條若隱若現*
             2018-11-28  ［ *中國新聞網*］作者 *梅新育* (商務部國際貿易經濟合作研究院研究員)
★ *美國自掘墳墓：北京主持葬禮！* （9）

北京經濟決策者目前正看著 *美國引發的金融災難在全球積聚勢頭，如箭在弦，中國管理者一向相信，漸進而慎重的改革可以幫助中國避免市場混亂中最糟糕的一面，中國具有很大的政策調整空間*。

我們所說的金融危機或金融風暴是世界性的。現在國際金融活動日趨緊密，各個金融市場相互關聯， *一個局部市場的危機爆發*（尤其是來自美國）， *往往會牽連到多個市場的聯動，從而引發全球範圍內的金融風暴*。

*十八大之後*，中央政治局首次以“金融安全”為主題進行集體學習。據新華社報導，在這次集體會議上， *習近平強調，維護金融安全，是* 關係我國經濟社會發展全局的一件帶有 *戰略性、根本性的大事*。

衆所周知，美國藉著美元霸權和軍事力量，在全球興風作浪幾十年，不少新興國家在美元上已吃了不少虧，但是面對這世界流通量最大的幣種，又無可奈何。那麼為什麼那麼多國家（包括中國）仍買美國的賬，購進這麽多美債呢？ 美國債券肯定有其吸引力，但不在此贅述，先搞清楚中國現行的部署。

以 *中國現在擁有美債的規模（約1.15萬億美元；同期中國的外匯儲備為3.12萬億美元，有1/3左右的錢都用於購買美債），大幅度的減持其實是互相傷害的*。大規模減持後會導致美債的疲軟，價格不斷走低，（1）美聯儲很可能要繼續加息以鞏固美元，導致人民幣繼續貶值。（2）另一個可能的結果是，中國可能要折價找接盤者。如果最後沒人接，還是落回美國的手裡。美國怎麼接？ *沒錢就只能繼續印鈔* 來買！這樣結果必然 *導致美元大幅貶值（除非美息大幅提升），而中國的外匯必然受其負面影響導致大量蒸發*。美元貶值反過來相對人民幣就有了升值壓力，這反而會削弱中國的出口。

假如特朗普轉個圈圈又令中美貿易關係緊張、態勢嚴重升級，中國继續拋棄美債可能不再是完全不可能的情形。市場對這個可能性感到十分擔憂：因為 *美國國債價格大幅度下跌的話，美元的匯率也會遭到了打擊*，與此同時， *美國股市會進一步下挫*。根據美國財政部公布的信息來看，在 *今年6月份，多個國家開始減少美國國債持有量，首先中國減持了44億美元，到了7月份，又減持77億美元*。相對而言，迄今為止中國在拋售美國國債方面還算處理得當，動作仍算是輕柔，但在貿易和金融博弈中，雙方仍在拉鋸並進行口水戰， *不排除終會在某一時刻就可能爆發真正的貨幣和金融戰爭*。

*如果全球大量拋售美國國債，剛好説過，最後美聯儲只能大量印鈔來消化，將會導致美元快速貶值，這會讓所有仍持有美債或者美元的人（包括中國）受損*。這又將 *會引發全球進一步惡性拋棄美元儲備。對於美國來說這是一場災難，當美元的價值受到嚴重考驗而無轉圜餘地時，美元在國際地位就會閃崩*。這時候， *美國就只有倒臥自掘的墳墓，但由中國以至世界各國主持這葬禮的費用相當高*。

除了美國官方債務堪虞（ *到目前為止，美國聯邦債務總額已達21萬億美元*）， *再加上2017年整個美國的家庭債務超過了13萬億美元*，創出了歷史新高，這也是美國連續第五年家庭債務持續增加，這包括信用卡、汽車貸款、按揭貸款、學生貸款等等。

以目前 *美國聯邦的負債情況，即使短期內，美元印鈔機也難以填平巨額債務陷阱，甚至還有可能引發美元資產泡沫破滅*。於是， *美聯儲只能用加息，引導美元回流*。

外匯儲備是一個國家經濟的基本保障， *如果大多數國家都不再將美元視為最主要的儲備貨幣（這趨勢已浮現），並增加另一些新的貨幣儲備，則說明美元的信用在陸續下降*。最近的 *一些跡象正顯現出，美元（貨幣信用）或正在進入緊張時刻*。

*國際貨幣基金組織最新的一份報告顯示*，截止去年第四季度， *美元在全球貨幣儲備中的份額連續第四個季度下滑*，盡管目前，美元依然是世界級的儲備貨幣和通用貨幣，但 *更多的國家，正在告別相對集中的美元外儲，而是增加多元的外儲貨幣方案*。比如，人民幣、歐元、日元等。

*值得注意的是，最近數月，全世界減持美債的力度遠遠大於增持的力度*，特別是像石油國 *沙特*、新興經濟體 *印度* 等具有代表性的國家，也 *都在拋售美債*。而作為 *美國第一大債權國的中國*，今年1月 *所持美債規模*（1.168萬億）環比 *再次減少* 167億美元，創下去年7月以來新低。 *現在全球股市告急，金融告急，經濟告急，何去何從！？特朗普極有可能成為歷史罪人，因為他極有可能是使得美國進入墳墓的一帶領者*。

對此， *中國商務部發言人在4月6日的新聞發布會上稱*：在中美經貿問題上，中方立場已經講得很清楚。我們不想打，但不怕打貿易戰。對美方聲明我們將聽其言觀其行。 *如果美方不顧中方和國際社會反對，堅持搞單邊主義和貿易保護主義行徑，中方將奉陪到底，不惜付出任何代價，必定予以堅決回擊，必定採取新的綜合應對措施，堅決捍衛國家和人民的利益*。

*這次中美經貿沖突，是美方一手挑起*，本質上是美單邊主義對全球多邊主義，美保護主義對全球自由貿易的挑釁。 *中方將繼續擴大改革開放，維護多邊貿易體制，推動全球貿易投資自由化和便利化*。！* （9）

北京經濟決策者目前正看著 *美國引發的金融災難在全球積聚勢頭，如箭在弦，中國管理者一向相信，漸進而慎重的改革可以幫助中國避免市場混亂中最糟糕的一面，中國具有很大的政策調整空間*。

我們所說的金融危機或金融風暴是世界性的。現在國際金融活動日趨緊密，各個金融市場相互關聯， *一個局部市場的危機爆發*（尤其是來自美國）， *往往會牽連到多個市場的聯動，從而引發全球範圍內的金融風暴*。

*十八大之後*，中央政治局首次以“金融安全”為主題進行集體學習。據新華社報導，在這次集體會議上， *習近平強調，維護金融安全，是* 關係我國經濟社會發展全局的一件帶有 *戰略性、根本性的大事*。

衆所周知，美國藉著美元霸權和軍事力量，在全球興風作浪幾十年，不少新興國家在美元上已吃了不少虧，但是面對這世界流通量最大的幣種，又無可奈何。那麼為什麼那麼多國家（包括中國）仍買美國的賬，購進這麽多美債呢？ 美國債券肯定有其吸引力，但不在此贅述，先搞清楚中國現行的部署。

以 *中國現在擁有美債的規模（約1.15萬億美元；同期中國的外匯儲備為3.12萬億美元，有1/3左右的錢都用於購買美債），大幅度的減持其實是互相傷害的*。大規模減持後會導致美債的疲軟，價格不斷走低，（1）美聯儲很可能要繼續加息以鞏固美元，導致人民幣繼續貶值。（2）另一個可能的結果是，中國可能要折價找接盤者。如果最後沒人接，還是落回美國的手裡。美國怎麼接？ *沒錢就只能繼續印鈔* 來買！這樣結果必然 *導致美元大幅貶值（除非美息大幅提升），而中國的外匯必然受其負面影響導致大量蒸發*。美元貶值反過來相對人民幣就有了升值壓力，這反而會削弱中國的出口。

假如特朗普轉個圈圈又令中美貿易關係緊張、態勢嚴重升級，中國继續拋棄美債可能不再是完全不可能的情形。市場對這個可能性感到十分擔憂：因為 *美國國債價格大幅度下跌的話，美元的匯率也會遭到了打擊*，與此同時， *美國股市會進一步下挫*。根據美國財政部公布的信息來看，在 *今年6月份，多個國家開始減少美國國債持有量，首先中國減持了44億美元，到了7月份，又減持77億美元*。相對而言，迄今為止中國在拋售美國國債方面還算處理得當，動作仍算是輕柔，但在貿易和金融博弈中，雙方仍在拉鋸並進行口水戰， *不排除終會在某一時刻就可能爆發真正的貨幣和金融戰爭*。

*如果全球大量拋售美國國債，剛好説過，最後美聯儲只能大量印鈔來消化，將會導致美元快速貶值，這會讓所有仍持有美債或者美元的人（包括中國）受損*。這又將 *會引發全球進一步惡性拋棄美元儲備。對於美國來說這是一場災難，當美元的價值受到嚴重考驗而無轉圜餘地時，美元在國際地位就會閃崩*。這時候， *美國就只有倒臥自掘的墳墓，但由中國以至世界各國主持這葬禮的費用相當高*。

除了美國官方債務堪虞（ *到目前為止，美國聯邦債務總額已達21萬億美元*）， *再加上2017年整個美國的家庭債務超過了13萬億美元*，創出了歷史新高，這也是美國連續第五年家庭債務持續增加，這包括信用卡、汽車貸款、按揭貸款、學生貸款等等。

以目前 *美國聯邦的負債情況，即使短期內，美元印鈔機也難以填平巨額債務陷阱，甚至還有可能引發美元資產泡沫破滅*。於是， *美聯儲只能用加息，引導美元回流*。

外匯儲備是一個國家經濟的基本保障， *如果大多數國家都不再將美元視為最主要的儲備貨幣（這趨勢已浮現），並增加另一些新的貨幣儲備，則說明美元的信用在陸續下降*。最近的 *一些跡象正顯現出，美元（貨幣信用）或正在進入緊張時刻*。

*國際貨幣基金組織最新的一份報告顯示*，截止去年第四季度， *美元在全球貨幣儲備中的份額連續第四個季度下滑*，盡管目前，美元依然是世界級的儲備貨幣和通用貨幣，但 *更多的國家，正在告別相對集中的美元外儲，而是增加多元的外儲貨幣方案*。比如，人民幣、歐元、日元等。

*值得注意的是，最近數月，全世界減持美債的力度遠遠大於增持的力度*，特別是像石油國 *沙特*、新興經濟體 *印度* 等具有代表性的國家，也 *都在拋售美債*。而作為 *美國第一大債權國的中國*，今年1月 *所持美債規模*（1.168萬億）環比 *再次減少* 167億美元，創下去年7月以來新低。 *現在全球股市告急，金融告急，經濟告急，何去何從！？特朗普極有可能成為歷史罪人，因為他極有可能是使得美國進入墳墓的一帶領者*。

對此， *中國商務部發言人在4月6日的新聞發布會上稱*：在中美經貿問題上，中方立場已經講得很清楚。我們不想打，但不怕打貿易戰。對美方聲明我們將聽其言觀其行。 *如果美方不顧中方和國際社會反對，堅持搞單邊主義和貿易保護主義行徑，中方將奉陪到底，不惜付出任何代價，必定予以堅決回擊，必定採取新的綜合應對措施，堅決捍衛國家和人民的利益*。

*這次中美經貿沖突，是美方一手挑起*，本質上是美單邊主義對全球多邊主義，美保護主義對全球自由貿易的挑釁。 *中方將繼續擴大改革開放，維護多邊貿易體制，推動全球貿易投資自由化和便利化*。

Google translation: What is the biggest crisis in the US economy?

[World Institute] one by one Lin Minzhen
*See: What is the biggest crisis in the US economy? Not China, Russia, it is 21 trillion US dollars in debt! *
             2018-08-03 [ *一牛财经* ]
*See: The new round of economic depression in the United States is looming*
             2018-11-28 [ *China News Network*] Author *Mei Xinyu* (Researcher, Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Ministry of Commerce)
★ *【世情研社】一一林民焯
*See: What is the biggest crisis in the US economy? Not China, Russia, it is 21 trillion US dollars in debt! *
             2018-08-03 [ *一牛财经* ]
*See: The new round of economic depression in the United States is looming*
             2018-11-28 [ *China News Network*] Author *Mei Xinyu* (Researcher, Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Ministry of Commerce)
★ *The United States self-digging grave: Beijing hosted a funeral! * (9)

Beijing economic policymakers are currently watching the financial disaster caused by the United States to accumulate global momentum. As the arrow is on the line, Chinese managers have always believed that gradually and prudent reforms can help China avoid the worst side of market chaos. China has very Big policy adjustment space*.

The financial crisis or financial turmoil we are talking about is worldwide. Nowadays, international financial activities are getting closer and closer, and various financial markets are interrelated. * A crisis in a local market* (especially from the United States)* is often implicated in linkages between multiple markets, triggering a global financial crisis*.

* After the 18th National Congress*, the Politburo for the first time conducted collective learning under the theme of “financial security”. According to Xinhua News Agency, at this group meeting, *Xi Jinping emphasized that maintaining financial security is a *strategic and fundamental event* that has a bearing on China's overall economic and social development.

As is known to all, the United States has used the dollar hegemony and military power to make waves in the world for decades. Many emerging countries have already suffered a lot in the US dollar, but in the face of the world's largest currency, there is nothing to be done. So why are so many countries (including China) still buying US accounts and buying so many US debts? US bonds must have their appeal, but we won’t go into details here to figure out China’s current deployment.

* China now has the size of US debt (about 1.15 trillion US dollars; in the same period China's foreign exchange reserves are 3.12 trillion US dollars, about one-third of the money is used to buy US debt), the substantial reduction is actually mutual Damaged*. Large-scale reduction will lead to the weakness of the US debt, and prices continue to fall. (1) The Fed is likely to continue to raise interest rates to consolidate the US dollar, resulting in the continued depreciation of the RMB. (2) Another possible outcome is that China may have to find a replacement at a discount. If no one picks up at the end, it will fall back to the United States. How to pick up the United States? *Without money, you can only continue to print money* to buy! This result will inevitably lead to a sharp depreciation of the US dollar (unless the US interest rate is greatly increased), and China's foreign exchange will inevitably be subject to a large amount of evaporation* due to its negative influence. The depreciation of the US dollar has in turn pressured the appreciation of the renminbi, which in turn will weaken China’s exports.

If Trump turns a circle and the trade relationship between China and the United States is tense and the situation is seriously escalated, it may no longer be impossible for China to continue to abandon the US debt. The market is very worried about this possibility: because * US Treasury bond prices have fallen sharply, the exchange rate of the US dollar will also be hit *, at the same time, * US stock market will fall further *. According to the information released by the US Treasury Department, in June this year, many countries began to reduce the holdings of US Treasury bonds. First, China reduced its holdings by 4.4 billion U.S. dollars, and in July, it reduced its holdings by 7.7 billion U.S. dollars. Relatively speaking, China has been properly handled in selling US Treasury bonds so far, and the action is still gentle. However, in the trade and financial game, the two sides are still sawing and conducting war of words. *It is not ruled out that it will be possible at some point. A real money and financial war broke out*.

* If the world sells a large amount of US Treasury bonds, it is just said that the Fed can only digest a large amount of money to digest it, which will lead to a rapid depreciation of the US dollar, which will damage all those who still hold US debt or US dollars (including China)*. This in turn will trigger a further vicious global abandonment of the dollar reserve. For the United States, this is a disaster. When the value of the dollar is severely tested and there is no room for change, the dollar will collapse in international status*. At this time, *the United States has only the graves of lying down, but the cost of hosting this funeral by China and the rest of the world is quite high*.

In addition to the US official debt (* so far, the total federal debt of the United States has reached 21 trillion US dollars*), * plus the total US household debt in 2017 exceeded $13 trillion*, setting a record high, this It is also the fifth consecutive year in which US household debt has continued to increase, including credit cards, auto loans, mortgage loans, student loans, and so on.

With the current *United States federal debt situation, even in the short term, the dollar printing machine is difficult to fill the huge debt trap, and may even trigger the bursting of the dollar asset bubble*. Therefore, * the Fed can only use interest rate hikes to guide the dollar back*.

Foreign exchange reserves are the basic guarantee of a country's economy. * If most countries no longer regard the US dollar as the most important reserve currency (this trend has emerged) and add other new currency reserves, it means that the US dollar's credit is in succession. decline*. Some recent signs are showing that the dollar (money credit) is entering a tense moment*.

* The latest report of the International Monetary Fund shows that * as of the fourth quarter of last year, * the dollar's share of the global currency reserve fell for the fourth consecutive quarter*, although the dollar is still a world-class reserve currency and common currency. But more countries are bidding farewell to the relatively concentrated dollar reserve, but to increase the diversified foreign currency plan*. For example, the renminbi, the euro, the yen, etc.

* It is worth noting that in recent months, the world's efforts to reduce US debts are far greater than the strength of holdings*, especially for representative countries such as oil country* Saudi Arabia, emerging economies* India*, etc. * All are selling US debt*. As China*, the country's largest creditor country, the size of US debt held in January* (1.168 trillion) was again reduced by *16.7 billion dollars, the lowest since July last year. * Now the global stock market is in a hurry, financial emergency, economic emergency, where to go! ? Trump is very likely to be a historical sinner because he is very likely to be a leader in bringing the United States into the grave*.

In response, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said at the press conference on April 6 that: China’s position on the Sino-US economic and trade issues has been clearly stated. We don't want to fight, but we are not afraid to fight trade. To the US statement, we will listen to its words and deeds. * If the US side disregards the opposition of the Chinese side and the international community and insists on engaging in unilateralism and trade protectionism, the Chinese side will accompany it to the end and will not hesitate to pay any price. It will definitely respond resolutely and must adopt a new comprehensive response measures to resolutely defend the country and the people. interest*.

* This Sino-US economic and trade conflict is provoked by the US side. It is essentially the provoke of US unilateralism to global multilateralism and US protectionism to global free trade. * China will continue to expand reform and opening up, maintain the multilateral trading system, and promote global trade and investment liberalization and facilitation*. ! * (9)

Beijing economic policymakers are currently watching the financial disaster caused by the United States to accumulate global momentum. As the arrow is on the line, Chinese managers have always believed that gradually and prudent reforms can help China avoid the worst side of market chaos. China has very Big policy adjustment space*.

The financial crisis or financial turmoil we are talking about is worldwide. Nowadays, international financial activities are getting closer and closer, and various financial markets are interrelated. * A crisis in a local market* (especially from the United States)* is often implicated in linkages between multiple markets, triggering a global financial crisis*.

* After the 18th National Congress*, the Politburo for the first time conducted collective learning under the theme of “financial security”. According to Xinhua News Agency, at this group meeting, *Xi Jinping emphasized that maintaining financial security is a *strategic and fundamental event* that has a bearing on China's overall economic and social development.

As is known to all, the United States has used the dollar hegemony and military power to make waves in the world for decades. Many emerging countries have already suffered a lot in the US dollar, but in the face of the world's largest currency, there is nothing to be done. So why are so many countries (including China) still buying US accounts and buying so many US debts? US bonds must have their appeal, but we won’t go into details here to figure out China’s current deployment.

* China now has the size of US debt (about 1.15 trillion US dollars; in the same period China's foreign exchange reserves are 3.12 trillion US dollars, about one-third of the money is used to buy US debt), the substantial reduction is actually mutual Damaged*. Large-scale reduction will lead to the weakness of the US debt, and prices continue to fall. (1) The Fed is likely to continue to raise interest rates to consolidate the US dollar, resulting in the continued depreciation of the RMB. (2) Another possible outcome is that China may have to find a replacement at a discount. If no one picks up at the end, it will fall back to the United States. How to pick up the United States? *Without money, you can only continue to print money* to buy! This result will inevitably lead to a sharp depreciation of the US dollar (unless the US interest rate is greatly increased), and China's foreign exchange will inevitably be subject to a large amount of evaporation* due to its negative influence. The depreciation of the US dollar has in turn pressured the appreciation of the renminbi, which in turn will weaken China’s exports.

If Trump turns a circle and the trade relationship between China and the United States is tense and the situation is seriously escalated, it may no longer be impossible for China to continue to abandon the US debt. The market is very worried about this possibility: because * US Treasury bond prices have fallen sharply, the exchange rate of the US dollar will also be hit *, at the same time, * US stock market will fall further *. According to the information released by the US Treasury Department, in June this year, many countries began to reduce the holdings of US Treasury bonds. First, China reduced its holdings by 4.4 billion U.S. dollars, and in July, it reduced its holdings by 7.7 billion U.S. dollars. Relatively speaking, China has been properly handled in selling US Treasury bonds so far, and the action is still gentle. However, in the trade and financial game, the two sides are still sawing and conducting war of words. *It is not ruled out that it will be possible at some point. A real money and financial war broke out*.

* If the world sells a large amount of US Treasury bonds, it is just said that the Fed can only digest a large amount of money to digest it, which will lead to a rapid depreciation of the US dollar, which will damage all those who still hold US debt or US dollars (including China)*. This in turn will trigger a further vicious global abandonment of the dollar reserve. For the United States, this is a disaster. When the value of the dollar is severely tested and there is no room for change, the dollar will collapse in international status*. At this time, *the United States has only the graves of lying down, but the cost of hosting this funeral by China and the rest of the world is quite high*.

In addition to the US official debt (* so far, the total federal debt of the United States has reached 21 trillion US dollars*), * plus the total US household debt in 2017 exceeded $13 trillion*, setting a record high, this It is also the fifth consecutive year in which US household debt has continued to increase, including credit cards, auto loans, mortgage loans, student loans, and so on.

With the current *United States federal debt situation, even in the short term, the dollar printing machine is difficult to fill the huge debt trap, and may even trigger the bursting of the dollar asset bubble*. Therefore, * the Fed can only use interest rate hikes to guide the dollar back*.

Foreign exchange reserves are the basic guarantee of a country's economy. * If most countries no longer regard the US dollar as the most important reserve currency (this trend has emerged) and add other new currency reserves, it means that the US dollar's credit is in succession. decline*. Some recent signs are showing that the dollar (money credit) is entering a tense moment*.

* The latest report of the International Monetary Fund shows that * as of the fourth quarter of last year, * the dollar's share of the global currency reserve fell for the fourth consecutive quarter*, although the dollar is still a world-class reserve currency and common currency. But more countries are bidding farewell to the relatively concentrated dollar reserve, but to increase the diversified foreign currency plan*. For example, the renminbi, the euro, the yen, etc.

* It is worth noting that in recent months, the world's efforts to reduce US debts are far greater than the strength of holdings*, especially for representative countries such as oil country* Saudi Arabia, emerging economies* India*, etc. * All are selling US debt*. As China*, the country's largest creditor country, the size of US debt held in January* (1.168 trillion) was again reduced by *16.7 billion dollars, the lowest since July last year. * Now the global stock market is in a hurry, financial emergency, economic emergency, where to go! ? Trump is very likely to be a historical sinner because he is very likely to be a leader in bringing the United States into the grave*.

In response, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said at the press conference on April 6 that: China’s position on the Sino-US economic and trade issues has been clearly stated. We don't want to fight, but we are not afraid to fight trade. To the US statement, we will listen to its words and deeds. * If the US side disregards the opposition of the Chinese side and the international community and insists on engaging in unilateralism and trade protectionism, the Chinese side will accompany it to the end and will not hesitate to pay any price. It will definitely respond resolutely and must adopt a new comprehensive response measures to resolutely defend the country and the people. interest*.

* This Sino-US economic and trade conflict is provoked by the US side. It is essentially the provoke of US unilateralism to global multilateralism and US protectionism to global free trade. * China will continue to expand reform and opening up, maintain the multilateral trading system, and promote global trade and investment liberalization and facilitation*.