過去看好多分析中美形勢文章， 這一份 我覺得是最值得 花少少時間睇 👇🏼

美國爲何不會放過中國？看懂了此文，你就看懂了國際局勢！

國政觀察 10月24日

來源：環球視野

一

歷史的必然

如果不是2001的911事件讓美國突然調轉槍口，山姆大叔只怕早就對中國下手了，不會等到現在。

2008年，奧巴馬當選美國總統以後，就開始火急火燎的從中東這類地區撤兵，豪言將60%的美國力量放到亞洲來對付中國，以實現亞太再平衡。

不僅在軍事上動作頻頻，在經濟、網絡、意識形態、文化入侵等諸多方面都動作不斷，這其中讓人最爲熟悉的，便是那個臭名昭著的TPP。

等到特朗普上臺，他發現搞這些東西都來得太慢，於是他採取了一種更爲簡單粗暴的方式來遏制中國，那便是貿易戰。

不僅僅是中國，美國曆史上早已對多國實行過打壓遏制。

任何一個國家，只要實力接近或超過美國的60%時，美國就一定會下手。這種歷史的必然與意識形態、政治制度、關係友好與否無關，僅僅因爲美國絕不允許任何國家可以與其匹敵。

歷史上已有諸多類似案例，美國先是降服拉美安頓好自己的後院，接着征服歐洲成爲它麾下的一幫鼴狗。

當蘇聯的GDP接近美國的60%時，美國就毫無猶豫的對蘇聯揮舞鐵拳，兩國開啓了長達幾十年的全球爭霸。

很可惜的是，由於蘇聯自身犯下致命錯誤，這其中包括受美國蠱惑最終人心離散、高層決策不顧現實一味發展重工業、深化改革路線錯誤（如大量西化）、體制僵化以至於出現低能領導人如戈爾巴喬夫等等。

正是包括但不限於上述這些致命錯誤，導致了蘇聯最終敗下陣來。

緊接着，美國的第二個對手出現了，那就是日本。

日本GDP於1972年成爲世界第二，1980年代接近於美國的60%，那時候的日本同現在的中國非常類似，製造業超級發達，貿易遍佈世界，日本商品充斥全球，特別是日本電子產品，幾乎是享譽全球，出生稍早一點的中國人，只怕對早年的日本電器都還記憶猶新。

在這種情況下，哪怕日本是美國的盟友，美國也一定會對它下手。

美國對日本的進攻，其實分爲兩輪。

第一輪，是美國對日本發起貿易戰

包括日本已經達到世界先進水平的優勢產業即汽車與半導體行業在內，截止1989年，美國對日本共發起了24輪“301調查”。

顯然，被日美貿易戰捲入的日本商品遠遠不止述這兩種，還包括鋼鐵、家電、紡織品、電信等其它千千萬萬日本產品。

但一輪貿易戰打下來，美國發現壞了，這不但沒削弱日本產品的競爭力，反而讓日本產品更上一層樓了，美國對日本貿易逆差更大了。

而且，這還是日本被迫採取了支付和解金、在美投資建廠、自主限制出口並增加進口、縮減過剩產能等對日本極不公平的做法的情況下出現的。

這其實是日本由於自己的軟弱而犯下的一個重大錯誤，所幸的是日本內力深厚，沒有傷到元神。

於是，美國乾脆來簡單粗暴的辦法，直接逼迫日本簽訂《廣場協議》

緊接着，日本又犯下了第二個致命錯誤，那就是同意日元大幅升值從而瓦解了自己的全球貿易、實行寬鬆的貨幣政策與財政政策，導致過量的資金注入股市與房市，再加上當年日本政府誤判形勢，最終當經濟泡沫破裂，日本經濟陷入了“失去的二十年”。

所以，通過上面的內容你就會知道，不論意識形態、政治體制，任何一個國家，只要它的實力接近或超過美國的60%時，美國就一定會對它下手，哪怕是自己的盟友。

美國打蘇聯也就算了，它連連政治體制、意識形態都與自己搞得一模一樣，並且絕對服從自己的日本都不放過，它會放過中國麼？

二

美國的戰略大收縮

當今世界有一種聲音，那就是覺得美國衰落了。

就筆者覺得，美國的絕對實力還在增長，從絕對實力來說，它並沒有衰落。

但是，相對其它國家的實力增長，以及它對全球的掌控能力，美國確實是“相對衰落”了。

這主要體現在如下方面：

一是美國曾經在世界上一呼百應，比如朝鮮戰場帶着一幫國家來打中朝，海灣戰爭也是美國帶着幾十個國家欺負伊拉克；

但現在你看看，世界越來越不聽美國的話。

比如特朗普下令要求北約多承擔軍費，歐洲那幫國家就不樂意的拒絕了，連日本都表示不會多出。有人估計，如果特朗普現在發動一場戰爭，跟隨它的國家不會超過五個。

不僅僅軍事上，美國霸權的另一支柱也危機頻出，那就是美元。人民幣在世界上異軍突起，大有對美元取而代之的潛力與勢頭；俄羅斯已經開始清倉式拋售美國國債，打算“去美元化”，與之響應的還的伊朗、委內瑞拉、安哥拉、印尼、馬來西亞、泰國、巴基斯坦等諸多國家。

中東那邊，美國原來是怎麼打怎麼順手，打得是順風順水，一旦控制了中東，美國就如願以償的成爲了宇宙霸權國家了。可是當它打到敘利亞之後，就越打越困難，最後自己一手扶植的IS勢力被徹底打敗作鳥獸散。

這只是其中的一些現象，實際上還有很多，這些案例當中當然也包括實力飛速增長並讓美國視爲威脅的中國了。

於是，從奧巴馬時代，美國就意識到這一點，就不斷收縮自己的力量。這就不難解釋爲什麼奧巴馬會那麼“善良”的從中東撤兵了。

只不過，奧巴馬從來不承認美國衰落了，因爲沒有哪國民衆受得了自己的最高領袖告訴自己，自己的國家不行了、衰落了；也不會有哪一個美國政客敢這樣說，除非他不想要自己的政治前途了。

到了特朗普這裏，美國的感受就更迫切了，特朗普進行了更快速的戰略收縮。

這就很容易理解他爲什麼要退出TPP、巴黎協定、伊核協議等等，甚至還打算搞翻WTO，還一度考慮過退出北約，川普的這種瘋狂“退羣”行爲，實際上就是美國退出自己一手塑造的世界，進行更快速、更簡易便捷的戰略收縮。

這背後有着美國人的巨大焦慮。

中國人民大學重陽金融研究院宏觀部主任賈晉京，曾研究過美國2016年總統大選選民分佈圖，發現支持特朗普的大都居住在中西部內陸，而支持希拉里的大都居住在沿海地區。

最終，希拉里獲得了全國6424萬張選票，比特朗普的6224萬還多200萬張，這說明圖中只佔8%的希拉里支持區居住了50%以上的美國人口，這些人多分佈在美國沿海。

這從歷史上也說得通，那就是二戰前美國實施了《宅地法》，讓大量在二戰前移民美國的美國人得到了美國土地，這批人稱爲“舊美國人”，它們正是支持特朗普的那一片紅色區域；

二戰後，土地分盡，《宅地法》不再實施，於是後來的移民只能居住到美國沿海一類的地區，這類人稱爲“新美國人”，它們主要分佈在支持希拉里的藍色區域。

舊美國人對新美國人乃至全世界都充滿着不滿，首先他們覺得新美國人，有錢人搶了他們的工作機會與賺錢機遇，沒錢的諸如不少黑人則侵佔了整個美國的社會福利，對他們造成影響；

同時，舊美國人自上世紀七八十年代逐漸被全球化遺忘，不但幾十年生活停滯不前，還感覺被人歧視。

於是，在這種形勢下，他們渴望改變現狀，渴望改變目前的一切。

於是，在這樣的背景下，一個混世魔王特朗普出現了，特朗普正是利用了他們這種心理，最終如願以償的當上了夢寐以求的總統。

所以到這裏，你就不難明白，爲什麼特朗普競選時，一直強調世界對美國多麼多麼的不公平，他一定要搞“美國優先”，要把世界侵佔了的美國福利重新給美國人民搶回來，如此等等，特朗普正是利用了那些舊美國人渴望回到過去的心理。

包括特朗普目前正在搞的在全世界看來是在破壞世界秩序、阻擋全球先進、逆全球化等不合理行爲，但在美國國內的支持率卻節節攀升。

看完上面這些後，你就明白了這一切。特朗普實際上是妄圖用美國力量去改變世界、阻擋歷史前進，妄圖用一己之力去扭轉乾坤。

所以說，不論是美國一慣的“60%紅線”，還是出於消除美國人的焦慮，美國對華下手，都是鐵定的必然。

三

中國方案

記得之前編者用“長平之戰”、“美英貿易戰”、“美國南北戰爭”等歷史成敗對中美貿易戰進行了深度分析，最終指出了中美這場較量中國獲勝的最關鍵點在於“深度改革”，並且這種改革不是隨便象徵性的，而是要進行到深水區的深度改革。

最近，越來越多的輿論場出現了相同看法，連一些國家權威媒體刊發的文章都表達出了類似聲音。

對於中美這場較量，編者還有如下觀點：

一，中國不結盟，確實很高明

曾經很多人不理解爲什麼中國不同俄羅斯等國結成盟友以對抗美國，而只是表以“戰略伙伴”。假如以前真的同俄羅斯結盟了，那將會重新挑起東西兩大集團的對抗，這對中國的發展顯然是不利的。

也正因爲歷史上我們的英明選擇，才讓中國沒有過早的同美國直接交手，直到今天才讓美國“十分關注”，但今天，我們的實力早已今非昔比，這十多年的井噴發展所帶給中國的，那不是隨便形容得出來的。

二，中國的政治體制決定了中國有着巨大優勢

中國政治體制的優勢之一，就是中國政局的穩定，這也就保持了我們政策的連貫性。以日本爲例，1989至2000年間，日本就經歷4個政黨執政，換了9屆內閣、7任首相，這期間的政策連貫性肯定大成問題。

更要命的是，由於資本主義上位靠的是資本，誰更有錢誰就更容易當首相，這期間就不排除選出一些低能領導人。有可能這屆政府的英明決策，沒過幾年就被下一屆給廢除，甚至作出一些致命錯誤的決策。

但中國不會，中國的政局非常穩定，出現這種情況的可能性微乎其微。

還有就是中國最高決策層的任命，也都是經歷深思熟慮的，中國最高決策層基本都是經歷過千錘百煉之後才能得以上任。

比如，上海春秋研究院高級研究員張維爲就曾指出，中國最高領導人的選拔，其最大特徵是選賢任能，中國的最高決策層的成員至少要擔任過兩任省一級的領導，至少要治理過一億以上人口，在國家治理和爲民謀利方面要有十分突出的政績。這種選賢任能制度也可稱爲“選拔＋選舉”的並行，這種制度安排既有中國自己的傳統，又有對西方制度的某些借鑑。

所以，在這種制度下，中國很難出現“低能領導人”，因爲按照上面的標準執行，不能勝任的，早在中途就被排除了。

三，中國有着廣闊的內外市場

中國的市場廣闊體現在兩個方面，一個是內部市場，一個是“一帶一路”等外需市場

內需市場自然不必多說，以前說過多次，我們14億人的廣闊內需，比“美國+日本+歐盟”的總和還要多。

外部市場，我們有“一帶一種”、“亞投行”、“金磚國”等寬闊天地。

這種並不是自吹，以“一帶一路”爲例，今年前7個月，中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家和地區貿易總值達到4.57萬億元，佔外貿總值27.3%，超過同期中美貿易總值2.28萬億元，越到以後，“一帶一路”沿線貿易量只會越來越大，對美國的比例則越來越小。

四，中國千萬不能犯致命錯誤

之前講過，美國分別收拾了蘇聯與日本，它們失敗一方面是因爲美國的攻擊，但更多原因是因爲自身犯下了致命錯誤。

比如日本，就輕率簽訂了“廣場協議”，輕率的答應日元大幅升值從而自廢武功，將自己一片大好的形勢輕鬆葬送。

蘇聯就更離譜了，前期一味的發展重工業，最終搞得自己民不聊生，沒有經濟支柱的爭霸註定是要失敗的；這一點，中國就比較聰明，一心搞自己的發展，儘可能的避免同美國去“爭霸”。

後來蘇聯就更離譜了，以戈爾巴喬夫爲首的改革派，在他們的改革中，大規模效仿西方進行大量西化，最終是改革不成反而搞死了自己。

就算在蘇聯解體後，甚至不惜解除自己的武裝、完全照搬西方模式來向西方表衷心，以求換得西方的高擡貴手與一絲憐憫。結果換來的是西方絞索更進一步的緊勒。如果不是普京上臺後，重點搞能源以支撐俄羅斯經濟、軍事上重點發展核武以保持自己的大國定力，否則俄羅斯現在早不知成什麼樣了。

所以，那些被美國打敗的大國，並不完全因爲美國，很大程度還在於它們自身犯下了許多致命錯誤。

我們中國在這場與美國的較量一定要以史爲鑑。

五，防止美國軍事冒險

在兩個大國之間發生戰爭，特別是在兩個核大國之間發生戰爭，在當今世界似乎是天方夜譚。

不過，萬事“有備無患”，作好萬全準備始終是沒錯的。軍事上美國未必要親自出手，還有通過中間代理人戰爭等手段。

當然，我們早就作好了準備，特別是新任國家領導人上任後，就着手大力軍改，必定能保衛幾十年來的改革開放成果，不能讓幾十年努力被別人一朝推倒。或許從那時起，早就預料到中美之間會有今天。

總之，中美這場較量，是一種歷史的必然。“60%”是美國劃給全世界的一條紅線，任何國家的實力接近美國的60%時，美國都必然對其下手，即使你政治體制、意識形態與美國完全相同、即使你對美國俯首帖耳、絕對服從，美國也不會放過。

中國GDP2014年達到美國60%， 2017大約美國的68%，而且中國的潛力遠超蘇聯、日本以及美國以往的任何對手。

再加上如今相對衰落的美國處於一種大大的焦慮之中，那麼它對中國的下手也就是鐵定的事情。中美這場較量是一場必然的較量，它不以中國想不想打而轉移，也與中國是否韜光養晦無關。

所以，對我們中國來說，只有衆志成城去贏得同美國近場較量，只有贏下了，我們纔有未來，否則，中華復興將成爲空談。

不要指望美國會對我們手下留情，因爲西方的詞典裏，沒有“憐憫”這個字眼。



Google Translation

In the past, I was optimistic about analyzing the situation of China and the United States. This one is the most worthwhile time.
Why is the United States not letting go of China? After reading this article, you can understand the international situation!

National Government Observation October 24

Source: Global Vision

One

Historical necessity

If it wasn’t for the September 11th incident in 2001 that the United States suddenly turned its guns, Uncle Sam was afraid to start with China and would not wait until now.

In 2008, after Obama was elected president of the United States, he began to withdraw from the Middle East. He said that 60% of American power will be placed in Asia to deal with China in order to achieve Asia-Pacific rebalancing.

Not only in the military, but also in the economy, network, ideology, cultural invasion and many other aspects, the most familiar one is the infamous TPP.

When Trump came to power, he found that these things came too slowly, so he took a simpler and more rude way to contain China, and that was the trade war.

Not only China, but in the history of the United States, it has already been suppressed and curbed by many countries.

In any country, as long as the strength approaches or exceeds 60% of the United States, the United States will certainly start. This historical inevitability has nothing to do with ideology, political system, or friendship, simply because the United States will never allow any country to match it.

There have been many similar cases in history. The United States first surrendered to Latin America to settle down in its own backyard, and then conquered Europe to become a group of hyenas under it.

When the Soviet Union's GDP was close to 60% of the United States, the United States did not hesitate to wave iron fists against the Soviet Union. The two countries opened up decades of global hegemony.

It is a pity that the Soviet Union itself has made fatal mistakes, including the temptation of the United States to confuse the hearts of the people, the high-level decision-making to ignore the reality, the development of heavy industry, the deepening of reform path errors (such as massive Westernization), institutional rigidity, and the emergence of low-energy leaders. Gorbachev and so on.

It was including but not limited to these fatal mistakes that led to the Soviet Union finally losing.

Then, the second opponent of the United States appeared, that is Japan.

Japan’s GDP became the world’s second in 1972, and it was close to 60% in the United States in the 1980s. At that time, Japan was very similar to China’s, the manufacturing industry was super developed, trade was spread all over the world, and Japanese goods were flooding the world, especially Japanese electronics. Almost a world-famous Chinese, born a little earlier, I am afraid that I still remember the Japanese electronics in my early years.

In this case, even if Japan is an ally of the United States, the United States will certainly start with it.

The US attack on Japan is actually divided into two rounds.

In the first round, the United States launched a trade war against Japan.

Including the advantageous industries in which Japan has reached the world's advanced level, namely the automobile and semiconductor industries, as of 1989, the United States launched 24 rounds of "301 investigations" against Japan.

Obviously, Japanese goods involved in the Japanese-American trade war are far more than these two types, including steel, home appliances, textiles, telecommunications and other thousands of Japanese products.

However, after a round of trade wars, the United States found that it was broken. This not only did not weaken the competitiveness of Japanese products, but also made Japanese products even higher, and the US trade deficit with Japan was even greater.

Moreover, this is also the case when Japan was forced to adopt payment and settlement funds, investing in factories in the United States, independently restricting exports and increasing imports, and reducing excess capacity, which is extremely unfair to Japan.

This is actually a major mistake made by Japan because of its own weakness. Fortunately, Japan has a strong internal force and has not hurt the Yuanshen.

Therefore, the United States simply came to a simple and rude way, directly forcing Japan to sign the "Plaza Agreement."

Then, Japan made another fatal mistake, which was to agree to a sharp appreciation of the yen, which would disintegrate its global trade, implement loose monetary and fiscal policies, and cause excessive funds to be injected into the stock market and the housing market. When the Japanese government misjudged the situation, the economic bubble burst and the Japanese economy fell into a "lost 20 years."

Therefore, through the above content, you will know that regardless of ideology, political system, any country, as long as its strength is close to or exceeds 60% of the United States, the United States will certainly start with it, even its own allies.

The United States will fight for the Soviet Union. It has the same political system and ideology, and it is absolutely the same as its own, and it will definitely let its own Japan, will it let go of China?

two

American strategic contraction

There is a voice in the world today, that is, the United States is fading.

As far as I am concerned, the absolute strength of the United States is still growing. From the perspective of absolute strength, it has not declined.

However, compared with the strength of other countries and its ability to control the world, the United States is indeed a "relative decline."

This is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First, the United States once called for a response in the world. For example, the Korean War brought a group of countries to fight against China and the DPRK. The Gulf War was also the United States with dozens of countries to bully Iraq;

But now you look at it, the world is getting less and less listening to the words of the United States.

For example, Trump ordered that NATO pay more for military expenses. The European countries would not be willing to refuse. Even Japan said that it would not be more. It has been estimated that if Trump is now launching a war, there will be no more than five countries following it.

Not only in the military, but another pillar of US hegemony is also in crisis, and that is the dollar. The renminbi has sprung up in the world, and there is great potential and momentum to replace the dollar. Russia has begun to sell off US Treasury bonds, intending to “de-dollarize”, and respond to Iran, Venezuela, Angola, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Pakistan and many other countries.

In the Middle East, how the United States used to play it was easy, and it was smooth and smooth. Once the Middle East was controlled, the United States became the hegemonic power of the universe. However, when it hit Syria, it became more and more difficult. In the end, the IS forces that had been fostered by oneself were completely defeated as birds and beasts.

These are just some of the phenomena, and there are actually many. Of these cases, of course, China, which has experienced rapid growth and made the United States a threat.

Thus, from the Obama era, the United States realized this and continued to shrink its power. It is not difficult to explain why Obama will be so "good" to withdraw troops from the Middle East.

However, Obama never admits that the United States has declined, because no country has received its own top leader to tell himself that his country is dying and declining; no American politician will dare to say this unless he does not want himself. The political future.

When it comes to Trump, the feelings of the United States are even more urgent, and Trump has made a quicker strategic contraction.

It is easy to understand why he wants to withdraw from the TPP, the Paris Agreement, the Iranian nuclear agreement, etc., and even intends to overturn the WTO. He once considered withdrawing from NATO. Trump’s crazy “retreat” behavior is actually the United States. Retreat from the world you have created, and make a faster, easier and more convenient strategic contraction.

There is a great anxiety of Americans behind this.

Jia Jinjing, director of the macro department of Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, studied the distribution map of the 2016 presidential election in the United States and found that most of the supporters of Trump live in the Midwest, while most of the supporters of Hillary live in the coastal areas.

In the end, Hillary won 64.24 million votes nationwide, and Bitamp's 62,240,000 more than 2 million, which shows that only 8% of the Hillary support area in the map lives more than 50% of the US population. On the US coast.

This has also been made in history. That is, before the Second World War, the United States implemented the "Homestead Law", which allowed a large number of Americans who immigrated to the United States before World War II to obtain American land. These people were called "old Americans" and they supported it. The red area of ​​Trump;

After the Second World War, the land was divided, and the "Homestead Law" was no longer implemented. Later, immigrants could only live in areas such as the US coastal areas. These people were called "new Americans" and they were mainly distributed in the blue area supporting Hillary. .

Old Americans are full of dissatisfaction with the new Americans and the world. First, they feel that new Americans, rich people have robbed of their job opportunities and opportunities for making money. For example, many black people have invaded the social welfare of the whole United States. , affecting them;

At the same time, the old Americans were gradually forgotten by globalization in the 1970s and 1980s. Not only did they live in stagnation for decades, but they also felt discriminated against.

Therefore, in this situation, they are eager to change the status quo and are eager to change everything.

So, in this context, Trump, a mixed-race demon, appeared, and Trump took advantage of their psychology and eventually became the president who dreamed of.

So here, you can easily understand why Trump has always stressed how unfair the world is to the United States. He must engage in "US priority" and reclaim the American welfare that the world has invaded to the American people. Come back, and so on, Trump is taking advantage of the old Americans' desire to return to the past.

Including Trump's current irrational behavior in the world that is destroying the world order, blocking global advanced, counter-globalization, but the support rate in the United States is rising.

After reading the above, you will understand all of this. Trump is actually trying to use the power of the United States to change the world, to block the progress of history, and to try to turn things around with one's own strength.

Therefore, whether it is the "60% red line" used by the United States or the elimination of American anxiety, the United States is bound to start with China.

three

China program

I remember that the editors used the historical success or failure of "The War of Changping", "The US-British Trade War" and "The American Civil War" to conduct an in-depth analysis of the Sino-US trade war. Finally, it pointed out that the most important point of China-US contest is that China wins. In-depth reforms, and such reforms are not just symbolic, but to carry out in-depth reforms in the deep waters.

Recently, more and more public opinion forums have had the same view, and even articles published by authoritative media in some countries have expressed similar voices.

For the contest between China and the United States, the editor has the following views:

First, China’s non-alignment is indeed very high.

Many people have not understood why China, Russia and other countries have formed allies to confront the United States, but only to be "strategic partners." If we really had an alliance with Russia before, it would re-engage the confrontation between the two major groups, which is obviously unfavorable to China's development.

It is precisely because of our wise choice in history that China did not prematurely deal with the United States directly. Until today, the United States was "very concerned", but today, our strength is no longer the same, this is a blowout for more than a decade. What the development brought to China is not casually described.

Second, China’s political system determines that China has a huge advantage.

One of the strengths of China's political system is the stability of China's political situation, which also maintains the coherence of our policies. Take Japan as an example. Between 1989 and 2000, Japan experienced four political parties and changed its nine cabinets and seven prime ministers. The policy coherence during this period must be a big problem.

What is even more terrible is that since capitalism is based on capital, whoever is richer is more likely to be the prime minister. During this period, some low-energy leaders are not excluded. It is possible that the wise decision of this government will be abolished in the next session in a few years, and even make some fatal mistakes.

But China will not, China’s political situation is very stable, and the possibility of such a situation is very small.

There is also the appointment of the highest decision-making level in China, which is also well-thought-out. The highest decision-making level in China is basically experienced after being tempered.

For example, Zhang Weiwei, a senior researcher at the Shanghai Spring and Autumn Research Institute, pointed out that the most important feature of the selection of China's top leaders is the selection of talents. The members of China's highest decision-making level must have at least two provincial-level leaders, at least to govern. Over 100 million people must have outstanding political achievements in national governance and profit for the people. This system of selecting talents and arbitrage can also be called the parallel of "selection + elections". This kind of institutional arrangement has both China's own tradition and some reference to the Western system.

Therefore, under this system, it is very difficult for China to have "low-energy leaders". Because it is executed according to the above criteria, it is incapable of being eliminated as early as halfway.

Third, China has a broad internal and external market

China's market is broadly reflected in two aspects, one is the internal market, and the other is the external demand market such as the “Belt and Road”.

Naturally, the domestic demand market does not have to say much. It has been said many times before that the vast domestic demand of our 1.4 billion people is more than the sum of “United States + Japan + EU”.

In the external market, we have a wide world like “One Belt One”, “AII” and “BRIC”.

This is not self-blowing. Take the “Belt and Road” as an example. In the first seven months of this year, China’s trade volume with countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” reached 4.57 trillion yuan, accounting for 27.3% of the total foreign trade, which exceeded the same period. The total value of US trade is 2.28 trillion yuan. Afterwards, the trade volume along the “Belt and Road” will only grow larger and larger, and the proportion to the United States will become smaller and smaller.

Fourth, China must not make fatal mistakes

As I said before, the United States cleaned up the Soviet Union and Japan respectively. Their failure was due to the US attack, but more because they made fatal mistakes.

For example, in Japan, the “Plaza Agreement” was rashly signed, rashly agreeing to the sharp appreciation of the yen and thus squandering martial arts, and easily burying a good situation.

The Soviet Union is even more outrageous. The development of heavy industry in the early stage has finally made it difficult for the people to live without it. The hegemony without economic pillars is destined to fail. This point, China is smarter, and is committed to its own development, avoiding the United States as much as possible. "Hegemony."

Later, the Soviet Union was even more outrageous. The reformists headed by Gorbachev, in their reforms, imitated the West on a large scale to carry out a lot of westernization. In the end, the reforms failed to kill themselves.

Even after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, even he did not hesitate to disarm himself and completely copy the Western model to express his heartfelt heart to the West in exchange for the high hand and pity of the West. The result is a further tightening of the western noose. If it is not for Putin to take the stage, he will focus on energy to support the Russian economy and militaryly focus on developing nuclear weapons to maintain his own power. Otherwise, Russia will not know what it is.

Therefore, those big countries that have been defeated by the United States are not entirely because of the United States. To a large extent, they have committed many fatal mistakes themselves.

Our China must be based on history in this contest with the United States.

Five, prevent US military adventures

The war between two big powers, especially between the two nuclear powers, seems to be a myth in the world today.

However, everything is "prepared," and it is always true that everything is ready. In the military, the United States does not have to take hands in person, and there are also means of war through the intermediary agent.

Of course, we have already made preparations. Especially after the new national leaders took office, they will start to vigorously reform the military. They will certainly be able to defend the achievements of reform and opening up for decades, and we must not allow decades of efforts to be overthrown by others. Perhaps since then, it has long been expected that there will be today between China and the United States.


In short, the contest between China and the United States is a historical necessity. "60%" is a red line that the United States has allocated to the world. The strength of any country is close to that of the United States.